Goldman Sachs has sharply raised its global optical module market forecast, projecting $67.7B in 2026, $131.4B in 2027, and $148.5B in 2028 – up 33%, 81%, and 115% from previous estimates. Shipment forecasts now stand at 548M, 691M, and 729M units for the same period.
The upgrade reflects not only rising AI server volumes but also higher optical module content per GPU/ASIC as network architectures evolve toward higher speeds. 800G and above are now the growth core, with shipments reaching 78.2M units in 2026, 144M in 2027, and 171M in 2028 – corresponding to market sizes of $45.2B, $107.5B, and $129.5B, a three‑year CAGR of ~69%.
By speed tier:
800G: 45.4M units in 2026 → 49.5M in 2027 → 48.7M in 2028 (declining as mix shifts to higher speeds)
1.6T: 32.8M units in 2026 → 71.4M in 2027 → 54.9M in 2028
3.2T: 23.0M units in 2027 → 67.7M in 2028
By 2028, 3.2T modules are expected to account for 55% of global optical module market value ($81.3B).
Rack‑scale AI adoption is a key driver: global AI rack shipments are forecast at 55K in 2026 (+190% YoY), 105K in 2027, and 163K in 2028. NVIDIA racks will dominate: 50K in 2026, 92K in 2027, and 148K in 2028.
ASIC expansion also boosts demand. Goldman estimates ASIC will account for 50% of AI chips in 2026, rising to 55% by 2028. Google TPU v9 servers are expected to adopt 12×1.6T modules per chip in late 2027, transitioning to 6×3.2T by late 2028. Meta's ASIC servers are projected to use even more optical modules per unit than GPU‑based systems.
Silicon photonics penetration is accelerating: 60% for 800G, 80% for 1.6T, and 80% for 3.2T by 2026‑2028. In the ≥800G segment, silicon photonics penetration will reach 68% in 2026, 73% in 2027, and 74% in 2028.
CPO (co‑packaged optics) remains early‑stage: shipments forecast at 0.72M units in 2026, 8.53M in 2027, and 16.25M in 2028 – penetration of 1%, 6%, and 9% in the ≥800G scale‑out market. Goldman raised its 2027‑2028 CPO forecasts by 35‑105%, while cutting 2026 estimates by 33%.
Pricing trends: 800G average selling price (ASP) will decline from $418 in 2026 to $314 in 2028; 1.6T ASP from $798 to $600. However, the overall market ASP will rise from $123 to $204 as higher‑speed products command premium pricing.
ICgoodFind Takeaway:
Optical modules are a direct barometer of AI infrastructure spending – and the upgrade cycle is accelerating. 800G is mainstream, 1.6T is ramping, and 3.2T is on the horizon. For component buyers, silicon photonics and CPO adoption will reshape sourcing strategies over the next 2‑3 years.
